Number 1

Rustin Mangum
December 26, 2024

With the first round of the CFP in the books, we are taking a new look at the remaining teams and, considering the performances in the first round, evaluating who is the top team.

Despite the higher seed winning in each game of the first round, we enjoyed all four games. Perhaps we are just excited for this new playoff format.

The four advancing teams each looked impressive and capable of winning at the next round. Of course, Texas (playing Arizona State) and Penn State (playing Boise State) appear to have the less challenging matchups in the quarterfinals, but both those opponents have a running back that teams have struggled to stop all year. We would not be surprised if those games are closer than many expect. That said, we do expect both Texas and Penn State to advance.

The other two games bring a rematch between Ohio State and Oregon and an intriguing matchup between Notre Dame and Georgia. We believe these games will provide the greatest drama in this round of the playoffs.

It seems everything is trending right for Ohio State to upset Oregon. First, the Buckeyes will be looking to avenge the regular season loss—particularly due to the way Oregon manipulated the rules at the end of the game. We expect Ohio State to be particularly motivated and focused for this game. Second, Ohio State has received much criticism from their loss to Michigan and their perceived inability to win the big game. Some have even suggested that Ryan Day would or should get fired without a deep playoff run (a contention we find absurd). Few things motivate players more than going after a coach the players love, respect, and want to lead their team. That and the players’ drive for the respect they feel they deserve will go far in each of the remaining games that Ohio State plays. Lastly, Ohio State is the team with the most talented roster and appears to be playing better than any team in the playoffs. The way they dominated Tennessee, the best of the lower seeded teams in the first round, appears to be a potential sign of things to come. Everything just adds up to Ohio State coming out on top this time.

Notre Dame was the winner of last week’s mock playoff bracket (based on WIM Factor matchups). They also finished the regular season as the number one team in WIM+ rankings. In the first round, they thoroughly beat Indiana, whose only other loss this season came against Ohio State. While the final score looked somewhat respectable, Indiana scored two touchdowns in the final minute and a half—when the game was realistically out of reach. With under five minutes to play, the score was 27 – 3. Certainly, Notre Dame will want to clean some things up, but we expect them to beat a Georgia team that played hot and cold throughout the season and is now playing without their starting quarterback.

Beyond this week, we see Ohio State prevailing over Texas, and Notre Dame beating Penn State in a close battle. In the end, we expect Ohio State to hoist the National Championship trophy.

Our Week Eighteen No. 1: Ohio State

Others considered: Notre Dame

Mentions: Texas, Penn State

Date: December 17, 2024

With the playoff set, we thought it would be fun to see how WIM factor matches up and predicts the winner of each game—all the way to the National Champion.

As a reminder, WIM factor matches up teams based solely on how that team has performed on the field relative to the opposing team based on commonalities in the matchups between the two teams. Thus, an easier or more difficult schedule has minimal (if any) impact on how a team performs in a WIM factor matchup.

In the first round, WIM factor has Texas (+17) over Clemson, Tennessee (+2) over Ohio State, and Penn State (+5) over SMU. The matchup between Notre Dame and Indiana is even on WIM factor. For purposes of this exercise, we will use the WIM+ rankings to break any even matchups. In this case, Notre Dame (WIM+ of 16.013) beats Indiana (WIM+ of 13.098).

Thus, the second round will see Texas vs. Arizona State, Tennessee vs. Oregon, Penn State vs. Boise State, and Notre Dame vs. Georgia. In these matchups, WIM factor again picks Texas (+10), Tennessee (+7), Penn State (+2), and Notre Dame (+5).

With these outcomes, the semifinals will see Texas vs. Tennessee and Penn State vs. Notre Dame, and WIM factor picks Texas (+5) and Notre Dame (+8) to win those games.

The National Championship will bring Notre Dame to face Texas in a game between two schools with storied college football pasts.

Texas last played in the College Football playoff last year but lost to Washington in the first round. That has been Texas’s only appearance in the College Football Playoffs. Texas last won a national championship in 2005 when they beat USC in the BCS National Championship game. Texas also played for a BCS National Championship in 2009 but lost to Alabama.

Notre Dame has twice played in the College Football Playoffs (2018 and 2020 seasons) and each time lost in the first round to the eventual national champions. In the 2018 season, they lost to Clemson in the Cotton Bowl. And in 2020, they lost to Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Notre Dame last won a national championship in 1988.

In this final matchup, WIM factor picks Notre Dame (+8) to beat Texas for the 2024 College Football National Championship.

[We also thought it would be fun to run through the WIM+ Ranking bracket (identified in the post below) to see how it would turn out. In the first round matchups, WIM factor picks Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, and Ole Miss. The second-round winners would be Ole Miss (even matchup with Oregon decided by WIM+), Texas (over Georgia), Ohio State (over Clemson), and Notre Dame (over ASU). Notre Dame and Ohio State survive the semifinals and Notre Dame again emerges as National Champions.]

Our Week Seventeen No. 1: Notre Dame

Others considered: Texas

Mentions: Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, ASU, Penn State, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU, Clemson

Date: December 10, 2024

Oregon remains undefeated, was crowned the Big Ten Champions, and remains our top team—largely for the same reasons explained last week (see below). But we now look to a broader inquiry: the twelve playoff teams.

Since the playoffs seeding starts with the top-four ranked conference champions and also guarantees a spot for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, let’s take a look at those teams: Oregon (Big Ten), Georgia (SEC), ASU (Big 12), Clemson (ACC), Boise State (Mountain West), Army (American), Ohio (MAC), Marshall (Sun Belt), Jacksonville State (Conference USA).

The College Football Playoff Committee has already released their rankings identifying the twelve teams that will be in this year’s playoff. We have no complaints with their selections (though we likely would have seeded teams slightly differently), we thought it would be interesting to look at what the playoff picture would be if the selection was based on the final WIM+ rankings using the same playoff structure for seeding.

Using the final WIM+ rankings, the playoff seeding would look like this:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. ASU
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Ole Miss
9. Alabama
10. Tennessee
11. Indiana
12. Boise State

Some interesting observations from this hypothetical playoff field. First, we note that ten of the twelve teams are ones that are in the actual playoff. Ole Miss and Alabama are the only two that would be in with the WIM+ ranking but did not get in to the actual playoff. Instead, SMU and Penn State earned a playoff spot. It is worth noting that under the WIM+ ranking, neither SMU nor Penn State would have lost a playoff spot because of their conference championship game. Both teams were outside the playoffs in the week prior ranking. They needed to win their conference championship to get in (as did Clemson, ASU, and Boise State).

The second interesting observation is that the SEC has a much larger presence in this playoff picture. While the actual playoffs include 3 SEC teams, the WIM+ rankings would put in 5 SEC teams. This speaks to the strength of the SEC conference. WIM+ rankings are record agnostic meaning wins and losses have no relevance—just how a team performs on the field relative to all other teams. So, while the Big Ten had a great season with multiple teams atop the AP and CFP rankings, there is credibility to the argument that the teams in the SEC are not ranked higher because they had to play each other (and someone has to take an L in each game played).

Lastly, while Clemson earned the twelve seed by winning the ACC championship game in the actual playoff bracket, they are the three seed here. Their ranking is actually number 15, but both ASU (#19) and Boise State (#31) rank below them. This illustrates the importance of the conference championships. There are lots of ways to define “the best teams” for purposes of making the playoffs and most involve some level of a subjective criteria (and many a high amount). But conference champions are as objective as we can get. By including them, a more definite path to the playoffs is available. That is a good thing.

We also note that including 5 conference champions ensures at least one G5 team gets included in the playoff. This year, Boise State would have made the playoff without the rule (though would have missed based on the WIM+ rankings), but that most certainly will not be the case every year. Guaranteeing at least one G5 school a seat at the table is a move in the right direction toward a more level playing field for all teams—though certainly more could be done.

Our Week Sixteen No. 1: Oregon

Others considered: None

Mentions: Georgia, Clemson, ASU, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, Indiana, Boise State

Date: December 2, 2024

The scheduled season is complete. Oregon is the lone undefeated team. Historically, that makes the selection of the number one team rather simple. But since schedules vary as day to night, we will dig deeper to identify the most deserving team to this point.

In addition to our sole undefeated team, there are seven one-loss teams and ten two-loss teams in the FBS. (Of note, the only two-loss team not ranked in the current AP poll is Louisiana.) Most of these teams do not merit consideration, but we mention it as a starting point. The question is whether any of these teams have a valid argument to being considered the best team in the country at this point.

First, we should note that there may be more parity this year than most years of the past couple decades. No team or teams stand out as significantly better than all the rest. When we also add in the fact that real upsets happen every week, parsing the best team involves significant “best guess” analysis. This is a good thing for college football.

The case for Oregon at the top: The fact they are undefeated leads their resume. That resume includes wins against three teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25: Ohio State (#7), Boise State (#10), and Illinois (#21). The knock against Oregon seems to be the quality of their opponents. So how does this resume stack up against the others?

The one-loss teams do not even compete with Oregon's resume. Notre Dame’s only win against an AP-ranked opponent is Army (#24), and they lost to unranked NIU. Penn State has only one ranked win over Illinois (#21) and a loss to Ohio State (#7). Texas has no ranked wins and a loss to Georgia (#5). Similarly, Indiana’s only game against a ranked team is Ohio State (#7), which they lost. Boise State has a ranked win over UNLV (#19) and the loss to Oregon. And Army’s only game against a ranked opponent was a loss to Notre Dame.

The two-loss teams have a bigger hill to climb, but let’s take a look. Georgia has wins over Texas (#2), Tennessee (#6), and Clemson (#18) to go along with losses to Alabama (#11) and Ole Miss (#15). Tennessee has a win over Alabama (#11) and losses to Georgia (#5) and unranked Arkansas. As mentioned, Ohio State lost to Oregon and unranked Michigan but has ranked wins over Penn State (#3) and Indiana (#9). The two-loss resumes get markedly worse from there.

Of all these teams, only Georgia’s resume appears to be competitive. They similarly have three wins over ranked opponents, and their wins are a bit more impressive than Oregon’s three ranked wins. And Georgia’s losses are both to ranked opponents, but they are still losses. So while the wins are a small upgrade, the two losses keep them from overtaking Oregon.

In the end, the top spot remains with Oregon.

Next week, in addition to the top team, we will identify the WIM Playoff Picture—how the playoff bracket would look if we used the WIM+ rankings.

Our Week Fifteen No. 1: Oregon

Others considered: Georgia

Mentions:Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas, Indiana, Boise State, Army, Tennessee, Ohio State

Date: November 13, 2024

Four teams remain undefeated: Oregon, Indiana, BYU, and Army. But not all undefeated seasons are created equal. Thus, not all undefeated teams deserve the same consideration.

Army has faced only two teams ranked in the WIM+ top 100 teams: North Texas (no. 85) and East Carolina (no. 92). Army itself comes in at no. 38.

The resumes of the other two unbeaten teams are better. Indiana has dominated most of their competition, but their highest-ranked opponent (by WIM+) is Michigan at no. 42, which is also their closest game, winning 20-15. BYU has quality wins against both SMU and Kansas State (WIM+ nos. 19 and 22), but they also barely escaped in their games against Oklahoma State (WIM+ no. 75) and Utah (WIM+ no. 68).

Oregon, our top pick the last four weeks, has a dominating win over Michigan as well as close wins against Boise State (WIM+ no. 21) and Ohio State (WIM+ no. 1).

Of the unbeaten teams, Oregon’s resume is clearly the best. But is there a one-loss team that deserves consideration at this point?

Texas’s best wins (by WIM+) are over Oklahoma, Florida, and Vanderbilt (nos. 27, 28, and 30). And they have a loss to Georgia. Ohio State has a win over Penn State (WIM+ no. 11) and over Iowa (WIM+ no. 26), but they lost to Oregon. And Tennessee has an impressive win over Alabama (WIM+ no. 4), but they lost to Kentucky (WIM+ no. 36).

Tennessee comes the closest, but simply stated, the resumes for the one-loss teams do not rise to Oregon’s level. And that is why Oregon remains in our top spot.

Our Week Twelve No. 1: Oregon

Others considered: Indiana, BYU

Mentions: Army, Ohio State, Tennessee, Texas

Date: November 6, 2024

It was a fun weekend with intriguing matchups, shocking upsets, and surprising struggles—all involving potential contenders for our top spot. Despite all that, the top contenders, including Oregon, mostly held serve leaving our top team in place.

The intrigue came from the Ohio State-Penn State matchup (nos. 4 and 3, respectively). Penn State was poised for a statement win. They went up by 10 early, but could only produce a single field goal after the first quarter. Ohio State (the WIM+ No. 1) was far from dominant, but again on the biggest stage, they showed they cannot be dismissed as a contender.

Texas A&M, who was leading the SEC, Iowa State, a co-leader in the Big 12, and Clemson, a co-leader in the ACC, each found themselves on the bad side of upsets. Each was ranked as a top-11 team going into the game (Iowa State and Clemson were tied for no. 11).

The most shocking struggle was Georgia against Florida, where the teams were tied late in the fourth quarter—even after Florida had to turn to a redshirt freshman quarterback who was an FCS backup last season. Miami trailed Duke until midway through the third quarter before taking over the game and blowing Duke out. And Tennessee was surprisingly challenged by Kentucky, who fell to 1-6 in the SEC with the loss.

While some struggled, others continued to thrive. Indiana trailed for the first time all season (amazing!), but then did what they do and blew out Michigan State. And SMU rolled over previously unbeaten Pitt.

As we stated, it was a fun weekend. But in the end, there is no movement at the top. Oregon dominated Michigan and further solidified their position at the top. And with a favorable remaining schedule, they look poised to close out an undefeated season going into the conference championship.

Our Week Eleven No. 1: Oregon

Others considered: Indiana, Miami

Mentions:Ohio State, Georgia

UPDATE: Article updated to correct status of Florida's quarterback.

Date: October 28, 2024

This weekend, we enter the final month of college football’s regular season. Luckily, there are five weekends in November. And the effect of these five weeks of games will be magnified leading into the first 12-team playoff.

In the meantime, let us explore the impact last week's games had on the number one pick. Without any major upsets this past week and with Oregon (last week’s top team) easily handling Illinois (AP #20), there is no change to our number one pick. But there are games that could have an impact on future consideration.

Indiana has been the biggest surprise of the season so far. Their impressive win against Washington moves them to 8-0 and adds to a convincing resume of wins where Indiana has not been challenged late in the game. It is true that their most challenging games likely lie ahead, but thus far they do not appear to be phased by their opponent.

Penn State also remained undefeated (7-0) with their win over Wisconsin, but their wins have been less impressive than Indiana (and even less so compared to Oregon). Their games against USC and Bowling Green, in particular, raise questions on their ability to hold the top spot. But they have a great opportunity this week to show they are for real when they match up against Ohio State.

Miami also remained undefeated but with multiple games where they have disappointed. In a three-game span, they narrowly survived Virginia Tech, California, and Louisville. Their offense seems capable of taking on any team in the country, but whether their defense can hold off a top contender remains questionable.

Additionally, some one-loss teams appear to be vying for consideration.

In this week’s only upset based on AP rankings, Texas A&M (AP #14) beat LSU (AP #8) in a game where the Aggies dominated the second half. While Texas A&M’s week one loss to Notre Dame currently keeps them out of serious consideration for the top spot, their seven straight wins now put them at the top of the SEC—and in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot.

Speaking of Notre Dame, their domination of previously undefeated Navy is a good resume builder for them. With what many perceive as a soft schedule, their early-season loss to NIU still looms large, but their week one victory over Texas A&M is looking better with each week. By continuing to win games in convincing fashion, perhaps they could push themselves into contention for our top team.

Other potential contenders got the win but disappointed this week. Ohio State (WIM Ranking's current number 1) narrowly beat Nebraska after trailing in the fourth quarter. And Texas got out of Vanderbilt with a three-point win.

With lots of exciting matchups yet to come, Oregon remains our top team for the third straight week.

Our Week Ten No. 1: Oregon

Others considered: Indiana, Penn State, Miami

Mentions: Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas

Date: October 23, 2024

Spoiler alert (and probably not surprising) our top team this week remains Oregon.

But, despite the lack of change at the top, there were some interesting developments in the top team analysis.

First, the obvious. Texas lost to Georgia in a somewhat sloppy game that saw four interceptions (3 Georgia, 1 Texas), three fumbles (all Texas) and four turnovers on downs (two each). But Georgia never trailed, and the game did not feel closely contested. Texas battled back in the third quarter to get as close as eight points, but Georgia responded with a touchdown on their next drive, and Texas was unable to score again. It was a solid win for Georgia, but their loss to Alabama keeps them out of the top spot (for now).

Another significant development involved an unbeaten team who has managed to operate relatively under the radar thus far. But with a big win this past weekend, that will likely end. Yes, Indiana completely dominated Nebraska (who was then 5-1). The knock on Indiana has been the quality of their opponents—a statement that was equally true for other teams ranked much higher. You can only play the teams on your schedule, and none have really challenged Indiana yet. Their closest matchup thus far is a 42-28 win against Maryland. Now, as they move up the rankings, they will receive more attention—with their biggest challenges likely still in front of them (including Ohio State on November 23). Interestingly, the WIM rankings currently have them at number 3 behind only Ohio State and Texas (although the data will become much more reliable in the weeks ahead).

Penn State, coming off a bye week, is likely the next closest for consideration, particularly with a significant win against Illinois. Penn State has looked in championship form at times this season, but multiple wins feel closer than they should be if they are going to compete at the highest level. Their schedule is not particularly strong, but they do face Ohio State in two weeks, and that game could put them in a stronger position.

The resumes of the other unbeaten teams do not merit the same level of consideration. Miami has been impressive at times, but they have not played a significant opponent and yet have only narrowly won each of their last three games. Iowa State and BYU sit on top of the Big 12, but each are coming off a narrow victory against a team they seemingly should have beaten by much more.

In reality, there are other teams capable of being (or perhaps even likely to be) National Champions this year, including many that already have a loss (and maybe two). But right now, looking at the on-field results, the team most deserving of the top spot remains Oregon.

Our Week Nine No. 1: Oregon

Others considered: Indiana, Penn State

Mentions: Georgia, Miami, Iowa State, BYU

Date: October 16, 2024

Another week down and more big matchups to unpack in deciding who is the best team in the country. The two marquee matchups resulted in Oregon topping Ohio State in a closely-fought, back-and-forth fight and Texas beating Oklahoma in convincing fashion. There were other great games, but none that had the same level of implications for ranking the top team.

Does that mean that the choice comes down to Oregon and Texas? At this stage of the season, yes, it does. No other team has a resume that compares well against these two programs. That said, a lot can still change as we are only halfway through the schedule. There is much more football to be played.

Some could argue for some of the other undefeated teams, particularly Penn State and Miami. But neither of those teams have a win against a significant opponent this season. Miami’s best wins are against Florida (their first win) and California (their most recent)—both teams are currently sitting at 3-3. Penn State does have a win against a good Illinois team (currently ranked #22), but that alone does not elevate them to the levels of Texas and Oregon. A similar fate affects the other unbeaten teams.

Have we forgotten or over-looked the one-loss teams? No. Certainly, many of them are serious contenders for the playoffs and the national championship. Ohio State narrowly lost this week, but they are an impressive team and will get their shot. Even after the loss, they are ranked second in the WIM rankings. And it would certainly be a mistake to count out Georgia or Alabama.

But determining the number one team right now, we look at what the teams have accomplished to date. And for now, that analysis comes down to Texas and Oregon. Which of these teams have been most impressive thus far. Texas sits atop the WIM rankings with a narrow lead over Ohio State—and a more significant one over Oregon. But Oregon’s big wins are more impressive than those of Texas. Texas’s top wins are over Michigan (currently ranked #24) and the recent victory over Oklahoma (then ranked #16 but now unranked). Oregon has wins over Boise State (currently ranked #15) and Ohio State (currently ranked #4). Texas can get a big win this weekend with a game against Georgia, but for now Oregon has the greater on-field accomplishments. For that reason, we are picking Oregon.

Our Week Eight No. 1: Oregon

Others considered: Texas

Mentions: Penn State, Miami, Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama

Date: October 8, 2024

What a week. What a season. College football has delivered in a big way already this season—and particularly this past weekend. Suprises. Upsets. Surprising upsets. Unless it was your team at the receiving end, it has been a great season thus far.

Now it is time to unpack it (along with recent weeks).

We have seen a serious shake-up this season. Apparently, teams are not content to accept the expectations of who is the better team.

This past week alone, Alabama (#1) fell to Vanderbilt. Tennessee (#4) lost to Arkansas. Missouri (#9) lost to Texas A&M (#25-tied). Michigan (#10) fell to Washington. USC (#11) lost to Minnesota. SMU beat Louisville (#22) and Syracuse beat UNLV (#25-tied). And Miami (#8) narrowly avoided a loss to California.

That’s just week 6.

Just the week before, there was further shake up. In what some considered likely to be the game of the season, Georgia (then #2) lost to Alabama (then #4) and another SEC contender Ole Miss (then #6) lost to Kentucky. And the Big 12 favorite Utah (then #10) lost to Arizona.

In the Big 10, Indiana (#18) sits atop the standings at 6-0 and 3-0 in the conference. And in the ACC, preseason favorite Florida State is now 1-5 overall.

So where does that leave us? Luckily, with many more games to play.

Texas was off this past weekend (lucky them) but have been solid in each game thus far—including a week two win at Michigan. This weekend’s Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma should provide more enlightenment.

Ohio State has soared in each of their contests without much challenge from any opponent. But they haven’t yet faced a particularly tough foe. This weekend’s game against Oregon should be considered must see TV as Oregon also remains undefeated with a close win over a very good Boise State team. This could end up being the Big Ten’s biggest game of the season. But do not forget Penn State. They are again very strong, remain undefeated, and look determined.

With a twelve-team playoff, one-loss teams fully remain in the hunt. As we discussed earlier, looking at the final rankings in each of the past ten seasons, all two-loss teams at the end of the season are likely to make the playoff.

The SEC powerhouses Georgia and Alabama are still contenders. And Tennessee and Ole Miss are still in it as well. Notre Dame had a bad game but has looked good otherwise. At least one Group of Five team will finally get a seat at the table. Could Boise State again be a disruptor to the power structure in FBS football? There are many questions still to answer and a lot of football yet to play.

For now, we focus on who deserves to be labeled the Top Team. Ohio State has dominated thus far (and sits atop the WIM rankings), but does not have a significant test to truly test them (which will change this weekend). Texas has a quality win against Michigan (although that win was weakened a little this past weekend). Oregon’s biggest test came with their narrow victory over Boise State. With still a long way to go, we must give the edge this week to Texas due to their win against Michigan.

Our Week Seven No. 1: Texas

Others considered: Ohio State, Oregon

Mentions: Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Boise State

Date: September 10, 2024

Two weeks into the season. The dust begins to settle. Caution is advised against over reaction, but at the same time we also do not want to support pre-season biases with no basis. For these reasons, we waited until week three to update Our Pick.

Both weeks provided exciting games and valuable information—both unexpected and reasonably foreseeable. Week one (which includes the week zero games) saw Georgia dominating Clemson (AP No. 14) in the week’s biggest matchup. Other significant games included USC’s win over LSU (AP No. 13), Notre Dame over Texas A&M (AP No. 20), Miami’s domination of Florida, and Penn State’s victory over West Virginia. Then there were the two losses by Florida State (AP No. 10) against unranked opponents.

In week two, Texas’s impressive win over Michigan (AP No. 10) clearly tops the list, but Tennessee dominating NC State (AP No. 24) is not far behind. Other teams seen as potential contenders showed significant vulnerability: Oregon (AP No. 7) struggled against Boise State, Penn State (AP No. 8) struggled with Bowling Green, and Oklahoma (AP No. 15) struggled against Houston. And Notre Dame (AP No. 5) lost to Northern Illinois.

Fortunately it is still early.

Other teams look impressive but without any significant test. This includes Ohio State, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

To this point, the teams that have been most impressive on the field have been Georgia and Texas. They have each been in complete control against a significant opponent—illustrating distance between them and the field. Sure, there will be opportunities for others to make up that distance, which will be considered at the appropriate time. For now, it is a very close call between Georgia and Texas, but we give the edge to Texas because they established their dominance earlier in the game than Georgia did. Texas was up 24-3 at half while Georgia led only 6-0. While Texas was not able to extend that lead in the second half, the game was never in question. In contrast, Georgia played close initially and then pulled away in the second half.

We do note that the WIM ranking has Georgia at the top, but Texas is just a hair behind.

Our Week Two No. 1: Texas

Others considered: Georgia

Mentions: Tennessee, Ohio State, Alabama, Ole Miss, USC, Miami

Date: August 15, 2024

A new season and a new era for college football. Every new season brings hope, excitement. Hope that your team will beat the loathsome rival or emerge a contender. Even hope to be the last team standing--the National Champions. This year, extra excitement circulates perhaps because there is more hope--or at least the belief that our hope will not as easily be diminished. With a twelve-team playoff, teams have room to stumble a little (some more than others) during the year and still achieve the ultimate goal. Two- and even three-loss teams will likely have a chance to make the playoffs.

In over 150 years of college football, only Minnesota (in 1960) and LSU (in 2007) have achieved a national championship with two losses. Under the new playoff format, a two-loss national champion will certainly be more common. And the door will be open for a three-loss and even a four-loss champion. The records of the top 12 teams at the end of the last ten seasons, gives us an idea of the records that may qualify for the playoffs. In each of these years, at least one team in the top twelve had three or more losses. Nine of the years had at least two teams with three plus losses. In one year (2016) there were seven--over half of the top twelve had three losses. And four years had a team with four losses in the top twelve. (Imagine the controversy that will surround which three- or four-loss teams are selected for the playoffs.) All it takes is for one such team to get hot at the right time to win it all.

Perhaps most excitedly for many, at least one Group of Five team will make the playoffs each year. Giving these teams a real path to the playoff is a game changer for these programs.

Everyone has more hope. More excitement. More anticipation. More energy.

So which teams should be most excited about the new chances to be a national champion? And which is the pre-season number one? As we have stated, preseason polls and selections are rather meaningless as no games have been played. Regardless, we seem to insist on them. So, here is our take on the pre-season best team applying the available criteria: prior years’ performances, perceived value of recruiting classes, and returning players and coaches.

With these criteria, the seemingly perennial favorites are: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State.

Alabama and Georgia are neck and neck in both recruiting and recent performance. According to 247sports.com, Alabama’s recent recruiting has been ranked second (2024), first (2023), and second (2022). And they have finished the seasons ranked fifth (2023), fifth (2022), and second (2021). Georgia’s recruiting has been ranked first (2024), second (2023), and third (2022) and finished seasons ranked fourth (2023), first (2022), and first (2021). These facts do not leave much room for another contender to compete with them.

But Ohio State also has numbers that approach these. Their recruiting has been fifth (2024), fourth (2023), fourth (2022). And their final rankings have been tenth (2023), fourth (2022), sixth (2021), but could easily have been higher. Last year, an underthrown ball resulting in an interception kept Ohio State from beating Michigan and advancing to the playoffs. In 2022, they were a botched field goal away from beating Georgia and advancing to the National Championship game. Of course, this is all part of the game, but it illustrates where the program has been and could be heading.

When we look at returning starters, the picture changes a little. Georgia returns 17 starters from last year while Alabama has 12. Ohio State returns 16 starters and, through the transfer portal, brings in multiple high-level starters from other programs. This could be the point that separates them from others.

Additional teams credibly add their names to the list for consideration. Texas’s recruiting has been sixth (2024), third (2023), fifth (2022) with a third-place finish last year. Oklahoma’s recruiting is similar: eighth (2024), fifth (2023), eighth (2022), but they have not had a top 10 finish since 2021 (finishing ranked tenth). Oregon has had recruiting years ranked third (2024), ninth (2023), thirteenth (2022) with a sixth place ranking last year. But these teams are further separated due to fewer returning starters (Texas 13, Oklahoma 11, Oregon 11) than Georgia or Ohio State.

Plenty of other teams could realistically hoist the championship trophy but do not quite have the credentials for the PRESEASON top spot based on the available criteria. For the championship, much more important will be a team’s execution during the season—and in the post season. We see many teams with this potential.

Will this be the year that Penn State breaks through in the Big 10, or can Michigan reload (only 6 returning starters) and run it back?

Will an old team be the new face for the SEC, perhaps LSU or Texas A&M?

The ACC last had a national champion in 2018. Can Florida State put last year’s ending behind them and have another banner year? Or perhaps Clemson or Miami will find a way to return to the top of the chart.

Can Notre Dame, an independent, rise to the top in an era that is moving toward super conferences?

Is Kansas State or Utah ready for a big leap forward? Or is there another Big 12 team ready for a bigger stage?

Lots of questions to unpack this year as the games are played. But in picking a top team before any kickoff, it boils down (for us) to Georgia and Ohio State. Ohio State’s success in the transfer portal gives them a boost while Georgia’s consistent play and high-level recruiting boost them. To help us decide, we also looked at WIMfactor’s pre-season ranking based on the available data, which has Ohio State in the top spot with a decent margin over Georgia. Given this data, Ohio State takes our top spot.

Our PRESEASON No. 1: Ohio State

Others considered: Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, Oregon

Mentions: Penn State, Michigan, LSU, Texas A&M, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Utah