Highlights

Date: October 23, 2024

Army and Navy remain undefeated through week 8. Each are ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 1960. Another historic first this year is the fact that despite having played each other 124 times, this is the first time Army and Navy have played in the same conference. This development has some exciting potential implications for the end of the football season. Could Army and Navy play back-to-back-to-back games—including a playoff matchup?

For the vast majority of their football seasons, Army and Navy have been independents (not affiliated with a conference). Prior to the 2024 season, Army was affiliated with a conference only from 1998-2004 when they were members of Conference USA. And Navy remained independent until 2015 when they joined the American Athletic Conference (AAC). With Army joining the AAC this year, Army and Navy share the same conference for the first time.

As tradition, Army and Navy play in the last scheduled game of the college football season—a sort of culmination of the season. The game comes after the conference championship games. So, with Army and Navy now in the same conference, how does the traditional game affect the AAC conference championship? It doesn’t. Despite being the in same conference, the Army-Navy game is considered a non-conference game, so it has no bearing on the AAC Conference Championship.

This creates some interesting potential scenarios—which have become more likely given each team’s success this year.

First, it is very plausible that Army and Navy could play each other in the AAC Championship Game and again the following week in the Army-Navy game. The AAC Championship Game will decide the conference champion, and the Army-Navy game will likely decide the winner of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy (Navy has already beaten Air Force; Army plays Air Force on November 2). Back-to-back games with back-to-back prestige at stake. As the adage goes, it’s hard to beat a good team twice in a season (or certainly within one week). With lots to play for each week, these games would be must-see action.

But could these games also affect the College Football Playoffs? Answering this question creates further intriguing scenarios (even if less likely to play out).

Let’s assume Army and Navy continue their current trajectories, remain undefeated, and face each other in the AAC Conference Championship. After that game, with their second matchup a week away, the College Football Selection Committee will meet to determine which teams will make the College Football Playoffs. If the winner of the AAC Championship is one of the five highest ranked conference champions, that team would automatically be in the playoffs.

But what about the team that loses the AAC Championship game? Could two AAC teams make the playoffs? Perhaps unlikely. But not unrealistic—or at least it should not be. Especially if the winning team emerges in a close-fought battle. And more so if there are few one-loss or even two-loss teams remaining in the FBS. Over the past ten seasons, at least one team in the top twelve at the end of the season had three or more losses—and one year (2016) saw seven teams in the top twelve with three losses. Four of these years saw a four-loss team in the top twelve. Certainly, an Army or Navy team with their only loss in their conference championship game should get serious consideration over three-loss teams (and definitely four-loss teams).

A playoff spot for the losing team could result in a scenario where Army and Navy play three times in three consecutive weeks: AAC Championship, Army-Navy game, and the first round of the playoffs if their ranking gets them one of the first-round seeding pairs (5-12, 6-11, 7-10, or 8-9). We would then have back-to-back-to-back games with each week bringing a heightened level of interest and prestige. Just imagine the drama and storylines this would create.

But could the traditional Army-Navy game between the conference championship and the playoffs dissuade the playoff committee from allowing such a scenario. Hopefully not, but history has not been kind to Group of Five teams. Looking back at the BCS and four-team playoff years, there is unfortunately reason to wonder if fans would be granted the drama of three weeks of Army-Navy.

The BCS, as college football’s first play-off-type matchup, effectively blocked every undefeated Group of Five team from reaching the title game. Even when a Group of Five team was selected for a New Years Six Bowl, the team was relegated to lesser matchups seemingly to restrict their ability to build public sentiment. The four-team playoff was supposed to open the door for Group of Five teams, but that opening ended up being only a crack with Cincinnati being the lone team to break through. Now with twelve teams, there is one guaranteed spot for a Group of Five team, but it is still to be seen whether additional teams that merit a playoff spot will actually get one.

In our current scenario, the playoff committee will not know the outcome of the traditional Army-Navy game (between conference championship and playoff). There would be a real possibility that the loser of the conference championship would also lose the Army-Navy game resulting in a two-loss Group of Five team with a playoff spot. Alternatively, the conference champion could lose the Army-Navy game resulting in questions of whether another Group of Five conference champion should have received the automatic playoff spot. Both could be scenarios the committee wants to avoid—particularly with pressure from the power conferences. (Right or wrong, they are the “power” conferences for a reason.)

The reality is that when the playoff teams are established, neither Army nor Navy will have completed their regular season. How will that affect the decisions of the selection committee? How should it affect their decision? Hopefully, the decisions will be based on real information presently available rather than crystal ball hypotheticals (or worse).

Prior to this season, those that considered these Army-Navy scenarios likely brushed them away as unlikely. But here we are over half-way through and the two service academies stand poised to bring increased drama to the end of our football season.

Such would be great for the game—and for the service academies.